The future of a progressive group of Democrats known as "The Squad" could be in doubt after some recent defeats ahead of the 2024 congressional elections.
Two members of the group of nine lost their primaries in recent months, while one of the co-founders of The Squad, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has recently drawn closer to more centrist figures in the Democratic Party.
The House of Representatives group was founded following the 2018 midterm elections by four progressive congresswomen: Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.
Its members have not shied away from criticizing their own party, but condemnation of Israel's conduct in Gaza—a war that divides much of America—has been a focus for opponents.
In a changing landscape, the group could be facing its biggest challenge yet, but it still holds sway on Capitol Hill, political analysts told Newsweek.
Primary Defeats
Two members of The Squad lost their primary elections and will not be returning to Congress.
Representative Cori Bush of Missouri's 1st congressional district and Representative Jamaal Bowman of New York's 16th district were both defeated in their bid for re-election.
Both Democrats have been vocal critics of Israel's actions in Gaza and in both races, their winning opponents were backed by the United Democracy Project, a group associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
Bush was defeated by St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell in the second-most expensive primary this election cycle. The United Democracy Project spent $9 million on ads attacking Bush and supporting Bell.
The losses show the continued divide among Democrats when it comes to Israel and their defeats will have an impact on The Squad's effectiveness.
"The Squad's power on Capitol Hill isn't in a free fall, but there's no doubt that its clout is waning," said Thomas Gift, founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, whose home state is Pennsylvania.
"Moderate Democrats are increasingly willing to distance themselves from far-left voices because they know that their brand of ultra-progressive politics isn't popular with large swathes of the electorate."
Paul Quirk, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia in Canada, told Newsweek that "during the first two years of the Biden presidency, with Democrats holding a slim majority in the House, The Squad was a force to be reckoned with in negotiations over Biden's legislative program."
"That influence was bound to be short-lived," Quirk said. "A handful of Congress members cannot get together, choose a name, make itself the leading voice of a much broader political tendency, and sustain the role for very long. There is, after all, a Congressional Progressive Caucus, with 10 times The Squad's membership."
Quirk said that some of The Squad's "politically vulnerable members have been picked off in the primaries, for their criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza, by a heavily-funded pro-Israel PAC."
Ocasio-Cortez and the Leadership
Representative Ocasio-Cortez was one of the four founding members of The Squad after her election to the House in the 2018 midterms, but she now holds an important position on a major committee and has reportedly forged new ties with senior Democrats, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Ocasio-Cortez serves as vice ranking member of the powerful House Oversight Committee and this has allowed her to develop a good relationship with Representative Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the committee.
In June, Raskin and Ocasio-Cortez unveiled legislation that would prohibit Supreme Court justices "from receiving gifts valued at more than $50." Both Democrats have been critical of gifts received by some conservative members of the Court.
"Ocasio-Cortez is gaining seniority in the Democratic machinery through her ranking committee positions and influence in caucuses," according to Mark Shanahan. He is an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom and co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.
Shanahan told Newsweek that Ocasio-Cortez is "less and less the fulcrum of The Squad."
Quirk described Ocasio-Cortez as "The Squad's most prominent member" and he told Newsweek she had "moved on to a bigger and better role, working closely with the party leadership and influential members," like Raskin.
It remains to be seen what Ocasio-Cortez's connections with the Democratic leadership could mean for The Squad, but a senior role in the party may be incompatible with the kind of criticism the progressive group has often aimed at their fellow Democrats.
Ilhan Omar and The Squad's Future
Representative Ilhan Omar won her primary in Minnesota's heavily Democratic 5th congressional district on August 13 with more than 56 percent of the vote. Her opponent, former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, described Omar as "divisive" and criticized her comments about the war in Gaza.
Omar avoided the fate suffered by her fellow Squad members despite her outspoken criticism of Israel, while Samuels does not appear to have been supported by the United Democracy Project. They reportedly spent $350,000 against Omar in 2022.
Though it's not entirely clear why the United Democracy Project stayed out of the race, it could be connected to Omar's fundraising. She raised around $6.2 million for this year's race.
She is almost certain to return to the House of Representatives in her deep blue district, but she may be facing a reduced Squad.
Shanahan noted that The Squad is "a minority in the House minority party, and without Trump in the White House, the group has both less influence and less focus."
"If it survives, it is quite likely that Representative Omar will emerge as its next focal point," Shanahan told Newsweek. "Retaining outsider status, she has seen off an AIPAC-funded primary challenge in her home district, and will continue to challenge the administration over Gaza. If AOC is seen to have gone mainstream, Omar could well become the rallying point for the left."
A Changing Alliance
The Squad has been making headlines for almost six years and changes are inevitable as the political situation evolves.
"While 'The Squad' was a term coined by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez back in 2018 to collectivize four, younger, progressive women of color who had been elected to the House of Representatives, it has always been a relatively loose alliance that has flexed in numbers, and whose members have taken slightly different policy positions dependent on the needs of the districts they serve," Shanahan told Newsweek.
He added that The Squad had "provided a focus for left-leaning Democratic House members to caucus around - and gained acceptance, if not patronage during the [former Speaker of the House Nancy] Pelosi and Jeffries years, it has never been fixed in aspic, and it's quite natural for the caucus to evolve over time.
"Six years into existence, it now has a stronger resonance for the media and in the eyes of its Republican opposition than on the Democratic side of the aisle."
The Squad's Power
Despite changes and some recent setbacks, The Squad is likely to continue in the next Congress, though it is unclear how influential it might be.
Gift told Newsweek that it would be wrong to say The Squad "doesn't have any political leverage."
"Its' members can make life miserable for centrist Democrats by rallying the base on issues like the war in Gaza," he said. "But it is to say that much of the Democratic Party is waking up to the fact that letting The Squad define its message is a losing gambit on the national stage."
Quirk added that "the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has come under pressure to trim its sails."
"The progressives' positions on policing, immigration, and gender issues furnished some of the favorite targets for Republican attacks on the Democrats during the 2022 midterm elections," he said.
"The Harris-Walz campaign is clearly attentive to the sensibilities of moderate, undecided voters. And progressives don't want to be blamed for—or to be actually responsible for—a return to power by Trump and the Republicans."
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About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more
